How much is Prince Fielder worth?
Yesterday, Ryan Howard inked a deal that will keep in Philadelphia until 2016 (with an option for 2017) for the tidy sum of one hundred and twenty five million dollars, plus a ten million dollar buyout. While most people think that the Phillies overpaid Howard for his ages 32-37 seasons, the other superstar soon to be free agent first basemen are salivating. First of all, the size of the elite group has been trimmed by one, which will drive the price of the entire group up by means of supply and demand. Secondly, the agents of these first basemen will likely attempt to use Howard’s new contract as a template for their clients. Prince Fielder, who has already indicated that he wants a contract in the $180-190 million dollar range, certainly loves to see his fellow left handed member of the 50 home run club sign a contract worth an annual average value of $25 million.
But what is Fielder worth? He is clearly a special talent, but if he doesn’t pick up the pace this year, questions about his consistency will join those about his weight and ability to stick at first base as he ages.
So let’s break down the Milwaukee hero that is Prince Fielder in an attempt to determine his value, starting with defense. According to UZR/150, Fielder is a sub-par to awful first basemen, despite his average 2009. He has posted UZR/150 ratings of -8.4, -9.4, -8.0, and 0.6 since his first full season in 2006, and is off to a dismal -19.1 start in 2010. The 0.6 is certainly a pleasant site, but it’s undetermined if he will ever be able to repeat his best overall season to date, on either side of the ball.
Offensively, he is a force. In 2009 he hit like a Home Run Derby winner should, with 46 home runs, 141driven in, and a slash line of 299/.412/602 for an OPS of 1.014. He also improved his plate discipline and walked in over 15% of his plate appearances.
Although this year is trending more like his “down” 2.8 WAR 2008 season of 34 home runs with an OPS of .879, Fielder is still relatively young at 25 years old and set to enter the prime of his career. FanGraphs estimates the value he has provided so far as $70.8 million dollars. But what does that mean for his future?
I think the common consensus is that Fielder will continue to improve as an all around hitter for the next couple of years, but there are concerns about his body type leading to a possible decline in production as soon as his early thirties.
Let’s compare Fielder to the recently extended Howard. Howard has posted a WAR of 19.2 since 2006. Fielder has posted a WAR of 16.5 during the same period – a difference of just over half a win per year. Their career OPS are thirty points apart, but their splits are remarkable – Fielder has posted a less than stellar but respectable OPS of .817 against lefties for his career, and is trending upwards. Howard’s career OPS against southpaws is just .752, and has nosedived from .922 in 2006, .826 in 2007, .745 in 2008 to .641 in 2009, and so far in 2010 he is posting an awful but expected .591. Howard is also four and half years older and defensively average. Considering that Howard, according to FanGraphs, would need to produce six seasons better than his solid 2009 campaign to justify his contract, during which he will aging from 32-37, it’s safe to say the Phillies overpaid for their star slugger.
But Fielder has previously said he wants “Mark Teixeira” money, presumably in total dollars and in average salary at a rate of $22.5 million.
Teixeira, the switch hitting, gold glove first baseman doesn’t suffer against lefties though, posting a career OPS of .926 against them compared to his .913 versus righties. Teixeira has been worth a mammoth 22.5 wins since 2006, and is under contract until he is 36. Despite averaging fewer home runs, he is a more rounded player than Fielder which makes him more valuable by an average of a win and a half per season.
The defensively average Miguel Cabrera has been worth an impressive 21 WAR since 2006. He has destroyed both lefties and righties (.982/.912) and is younger than everyone but Fielder. He is also paid the least, at an average annual salary of just over $19 million until he is 32 years old.
Despite the much better contracts for both Teixeira and Cabrera, I find Ryan Howard to be the most comparable all around player to Prince Fielder. They are both big left-handers who are weaker against southpaws, they are the most comparable defensively (although Howard is better) and they both swing for the fences with every cut. Further, it seems that with the concerns over Fielder’s likelihood to age well, a 5 year contract would probably be best.
So what do we do with this information? With the skill and salaries of these other MVP-caliber first basemen (Interestingly, Fielder and Cabrera are the only two not to have won the award) in mind, I think we can say that Fielder has earned an average annual salary more Miguel Cabrera than Ryan Howard. Check out the table below:
| Player | Contract | Average annual salary | WAR ‘06-‘09 | Average annual WAR ’06-‘09 | Pay Index |
| Ryan Howard | 5 years / $125M | $25.00M | 19.2 | 4.8 | 5.21 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 8 years / $152.3M | $19.15M | 21.0 | 5.25 | 3.65 |
| Mark Teixeira | 8 years / $180M | $22.50M | 22.5 | 5.625 | 4.00 |
| Mean | | $22.22M | 20.9 | 5.225 | 4.25 |
What this table shows is the dollar amount awarded based on their respective contributions to winning ballgames. The pay index is simply the average annual salary of the player divided by the average annual Wins Above Replacement that they have provided since Fielder’s first full year in the show. The lower the number, the better value the player is for the team – making Cabrera the best bargain of the bunch. I feel that the average annual salary and pay index of these players combine to give us a great starting point to start in determining the specifics for Fielder’s next contract. The fact that Fielder is currently a slightly less impressive player (a negative) and the fact that he is younger (a positive) are of equal weight in my mind, and would thus cancel out any affect they would have on his pay index. Thus, we can take Fielder’s average annual WAR (4.13) and divide it by the average pay index (4.25) to give us Fielder’s value compared to these sluggers.
(4.13 \ 4.25) X 100 = 97%.
So if Fielder’s abilities have earned him a payday 97% of the salary of these other sluggers, his annual salary would be
$22.22M * .97 = 21.55M per year.
In my option, a fair market value for Prince Fielder would be 5 years and $107.75 million dollars, making the 5 year / $100M offered to C.C. Sabathia a home-town discount.
Whether or not the Brewer’s should try to lock Fielder up is a separate debate entirely.
